When you start investing, most experts will tell you to prepare well — make a plan, create a budget, research companies, and listen to financial analysts. But what if you could make money in the stock market by picking random stocks instead of doing all that work?
It sounds crazy, but experiments have actually tested this idea — and the results are surprising.
Can You Win by Chance?
Back in 2019, a group of Wall Street Journal writers decided to test whether random stock picks could beat the market. They hung pages from the daily stock listings on a wall and threw darts to pick which stocks to “buy.”
Their goal was to see if their random picks could perform better than stocks selected by professional investors. Shockingly, they did — by a huge 27% margin!
And this wasn’t the only time random picks worked out well. In earlier experiments, researchers had cats and monkeys choose stocks at random — and even those animals managed to outperform some professional investors.
So does that mean you can just throw darts or let your cat walk on your keyboard to pick stocks? Not exactly. Let’s look closer at why this happens.
What Does It Really Mean?
When you randomly pick stocks, you’re more likely to end up choosing small-cap companies — these are smaller businesses with lower market value. The reason is simple: there are far more small-cap stocks in the market than big ones.
Small-cap stocks can rise quickly during times of economic growth. For example, if a company earns RM500,000 a year and increases its revenue by RM200,000, that’s a huge 40% jump. But if a large company earning RM5 million makes the same RM200,000 increase, that’s only a 4% rise.
This means smaller companies often show faster growth and bigger stock gains in a short time. That’s why random picks sometimes perform well — by accident, they include many small, fast-growing stocks.
But there’s a catch.
Would This Work for You?
Technically, yes — but only in certain situations.
Small-cap stocks can grow fast, but they can also fall just as fast. They are much riskier than large, stable companies. These businesses may not have enough funding or stability to handle tough times.
So if you invest randomly, you might end up with a few big winners — or you could lose money just as quickly.
Another problem is that a random selection can leave your portfolio unbalanced. For example, you might accidentally invest too much in one industry or one type of company. That means if that sector goes down, your entire portfolio suffers.
In fact, most of these random-pick experiments only looked at short-term results — usually about one year. They also happened during periods when the economy was growing, like after the 2011 U.S. recession. We don’t know how those random picks would perform during a market crash or slowdown.
Why Diversification Matters
While it’s fun to think about beating the market by luck, smart investing is all about diversification and planning. Having a mix of different types of investments helps you stay safe during market ups and downs.
Winning by random chance might make a good headline, but relying on luck won’t help you build long-term wealth. You need a strategy to protect your money and make steady progress.
That’s why many people prefer unit trust funds or mutual funds. These funds are managed by professionals and spread your investment across many companies, reducing risk. They’re designed to survive even when the economy slows down — something random picks can’t promise.
Final Thoughts
Yes, you might get lucky by picking random stocks and even beat the market for a while. But luck doesn’t last forever.
The real key to success in investing isn’t guessing or gambling — it’s knowledge, planning, and patience. So before you throw darts at the stock page, remember: investing smartly is the real way to reach financial freedom.
Ready to Put Your Stock-Picking Skills to the Test?
Whether you believe in strategy or luck, the best way to find out is to start investing today. Explore the market, build your portfolio, and see how your choices perform in real time.
👉 Trade Now and discover whether your next winning stock pick is skill — or pure chance!
